Crypto waits on the Fed.

The Fed will announce its final rate decision for 2025 on Wednesday, with the CME Group indicating an approximately 85–90% chance of a 25-basis-point cut.

Blockchain-based prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, reflected even higher odds, at 97% and 96%, respectively.

Markets are operating somewhat blindly. The October Employment Situation report and some inflation releases were delayed due to the government shutdown, and the October PPI is being skipped entirely and will be included in later data.

What we do have points to uncertainty:

• September unemployment is at a four-year high of 4.4 percent.
• Private employers decreased 32,000 jobs in November, the largest drop in 2.5 years.

Despite high confidence in a rate cut, the market is still in a holding pattern. Traders want confirmation, not liquidation.